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COVID-19 Update

In a previous article, we asked how we could expect to get back to normal and discussed the different public health strategies used in the management of infectious disease. The WHO has declared COVID-19 a pandemic. It may seem counterintuitive but this may help in normalising the international response which has so far been fragmented. We describe the principles of containment versus mitigation and offer an explanation as to why a move to delay and mitigation is likely to happen eventually here

We are increasing our understanding of this disease. It is clearly very infectious, at least in some circumstances. As we have explained this means that the case severity is likely to be lower than the crude fatality rates in many media reports. We have explained the dilemma of mortality early in epidemics here. The academic consensus for mortality is currently around 0.3-1% (WHO). It could be higher but it could be lower if blood testing eventually confirms more widespread, mild disease. The hospital mortality over the age of 80 years is 15%. Another way of looking at this data is that of every 100 people over the age of 80 who contract COVID-19 and become ill enough to go to hospital. 85% make a full recovery.

Whether children simply do not get the illness or get it and experience mild symptoms is one of the important uncertainties. Regardless, it is good news on both counts. Children and young people seem to have no or very mild disease and if they are getting mild disease it means the individual case severity must be lower than current estimates.

The impact of COVID-19 on the population will be determined by the epidemic, not by the severity of the illness on a case by case basis. We are regularly updating the latest understanding and evidence of this process:

The latest update on COVID-19: The disease

The latest update on COVID-19: The epidemic

As predicted the highly infectious epidemic of anxiety saw the same issues as Hong Kong played out internationally. From poor media coverage and misinformation to fights over toilet rolls. Anxiety is more infectious and more dangerous than the disease itself. Information and education are key factors in the management of both anxiety and infectious disease.

Our health information resources are now available in Chinese and French.

Contain or Mitigate

COVID-19 最新消息





COVID-19 最新消息:疾病

COVID-19 最新消息:流行病